Hong Kong protests complicate US-China trade talks

THEY'RE THAT JOINED AT THE PROVERBIAL HIP, LET'S GO TO THE PUBLISHER, AND UNITED CAPITAL CEO JOE DURAN JOE I'M LOOKING AT THESE KIND OF DEVELOPMENTS AND THINKING WELL, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCORING A DEAL QUICKLY NOW IS AT LEAST COMPLICATED

WHAT DO YOU THINK? >> YES, ANYTHING THAT ADDS MORE QUESTIONS THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED OBVIOUSLY COMPLICATE THINGS, AND PLAY INTO DONALD TRUMP'S HANDS, INTO OUR PRESIDENT'S HANDS FRANKLY BECAUSE HE CAN THEN SAY LOOK THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T DO A DEAL WITH THEM AND ANYTHING THAT VALIDATES HIS POSITION IS HELPFUL TO HIS CAUSE, AND I DO THINK CLOUDS THE WATER A LITTLE BIT MORE I THINK MEXICO WAS A DISTRACTION WHICH WAS NOT HELPFUL GETTING THAT OFF THE TABLE ALLOWS THEM TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE RIGID WITH THE CHINESE I ALSO THINK YOU HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE CURRENCY BECAUSE WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THEIR CURRENCY GOING DOWN, THEY'RE ABLE TO ACTUALLY OFFSET A LOT OF THE TARIFF IMPACTS NEIL: THAT'S RIGHT >> THAT SHOULDN'T BE IGNORED

NEIL: IT'S FUNNY TOO RICH ON THAT CURRENCY FRONT THE PRESIDENT IS KIND OF THE SIDE THAT HE DOESN'T HAVE THE SAME FREEDOMS THAT HIS CHINESE COUNTERPART DOES SO ESSENTIALLY CONTROL WHAT WOULD BE THE FEDERAL RESERVE THE WAY HE CAN CONTROL THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA, AND RIG THAT CURRENCY TO GET THE DESIRED RESULT THIS IS ALL THE MORE COMPLICATED NOW, RIGHT? >> IT'S A LOT MORE COMPLICATED THE US HAS BY FAR THE ECONOMIC LEVERAGE IN THIS RELATIONSHIP, BUT OF COURSE THE DIFFERENTIATOR IS THAT PRESIDENT XI IS THE PRESIDENT FOR LIFE, AND THE MILITARY STANDS BEHIND HIM AND THE MILITARY IS NOT GOING TO BE MOVED, SO THIS IS A TENSE SITUATION

I COULDN'T AGREE MORE WITH JOE THAT TRUMP REALLY NEEDS TO LET GO OF PICKING TRADE FIGHTS OR SPATS WITH EUROPE OR MEXICO OR ANYBODY ELSE, FROM THIS POINT FORWARD, BECAUSE IF YOU BELIEVE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS THE ONE TO MANAGE THE RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA, HE FIRST HAS TO GET RE-ELECTED AND RIGHT NOW HE HAS HIGH DISAPPROVAL RATINGS IN STATES HE WON IN 2016 LIKE WISCONSIN AND IOWA BECAUSE OF THE FALLOUT HADS FROM THE TRADE WAR NEIL: WELL THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER ISSUES THAT MIGHT BE WITH HIS POLL NUMBERS BUT YOU RAISE A GOOD POINT BUT KAITLYN WHAT I'M WONDERING ABOUT IS THE PRESIDENT MIGHT HAVE BEEN WISE TO HOLD OFF ON THESE RENEWING TALKS BECAUSE HE IS VERY PATIENT ABOUT THIS HE MIGHT NOT RENEW IT ANY TIME SOON AND NOW GIVEN WHAT'S HAPPENING IN HONG KONG, HE MIGHT HAVE BEEN PROVEN, HOW IS THIS ALL GOING TO FALL OUT DO YOU THINK? >> I THINK THERE'S TWO COMPETING FACTORS HERE SO FOR CHINA, PRESIDENT XI DOESN'T WANT TO LOOK LIKE HE'S GIVING INTO TRUMP'S DEMANDS HE SAID THAT HE WON'T DO THAT, AND SO IT'S KIND OF A POLITICAL FACTOR HERE BUT ON THE OTHER HAND AS WE'RE WATCHING TROUBLE WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY, I MEAN, IF CHINA AND THE U

S DON'T COME TO SOME KIND OF TRADE AGREEMENT THEN THINGS COULD GET WORSE ECONOMICALLY IN CHINA, SO THOSE ARE KIND OF THE TWO COMPETING FACTORS I THINK THAT ARE GOING TO BE AT PLAY IN THE NEXT WEEKS AND MONTHS NEIL: YOU KNOW, THERE ARE ALWAYS BLACK SWAN DEVELOPMENTS FOR THE MARKET YOU REMINDED ME THAT OVER THE YEARS THAT AND I'M WONDERING THIS HONG KONG THING COULD BE THAT ALL OF A SUDDEN OUT OF NOWHERE CHINA HAS THIS NEW EXTRADITION POLICY THAT JUST CAME OUT OF THE BLUE AND ALL OF A SUDDEN, THEY THOUGHT THAT HONG KONG RESIDENTS ACCEPT IT AND OBVIOUSLY, IT'S PROVEN BUT THIS COULD EASILY ESCALATE INTO SOMETHING WHAT DO YOU THINK? >> I THINK IT'S QUITE LIKE, SORRY, ARE YOU TALKING TO ME, NEIL? NEIL: I AM JOE, YES, I APOLOGIZE >> OKAY, GREAT I THINK IT'S UNLIKELY THEY WILL PICK THIS MOMENT TO DO THAT

AGAIN THEY HAVE A CENTRAL- CONTROLLED GOVERNMENT THEY, LIKE OUR OWN PRESIDENT, KNOWS HOW TO DISTRACT WHERE NECESSARY, IF THEY DON'T LIKE WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE US FRONT, IT'S CREATED A DISTRACTION HERE AND IT'S WORKING, AND I THINK THEY'LL RESOLVE IT AND ACT LIKE THEY'VE DONE WELL, AND THEN THEY'LL CONTINUE BACK THEY HAVE NO REASON TO MOVE QUICKLY, AND SO THEY WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THE ELECTION PASSES AND SECONDARILY THEY AREN'T DOING ANYTHING EMBARRASSING TO THEIR LEADERSHIP SO YOU'VE GOT TO BE VERY CONSCIENCE OF THE FACT THAT WE'VE GOT TO GIVE THEM A WAY OUT AS WELL BUT I DON'T THINK THEY WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY AT ALL

THIS IS JUST A DISTRACTION NEIL: I COULD REMEMBER A LOT OF PEOPLE THINKING BACK IN 1989 RICHARD THAT COOLER HEADS WOULD PREVAIL AND CERTAINLY THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES WOULDN'T ATTACK PEOPLE, AND WE ALL KNOW IN RETROSPECT THAT WAS WRONG AND I'M BEGINNING TO WONDER, WITH LEAVING TRADE OUT OF THE EQUATION OBVIOUSLY EVERYONE WANTS TO SEE A GOOD TRADE DEAL SCORED THERE ARE BIGGER WORRIES NOW >> WELL THERE ARE BIGGER WORRIES CHINA'S MADE NO BONES ABOUT THE FACT THAT IT WANTS TO REASSERT ITSELF AS THE WORLD'S LEADING NATION AND THEY'VE GOT THE 2025 PLAN TO DO THAT, TO MAKE TO GET INDEPENDENCE AND ALL OF THE MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, ALL OF THE KEY TECHNOLOGIES GOING FORWARD THEY ARE AT A VERY CRITICAL JUNCTURE RIGHT NOW

IT'S JUST THAT I DON'T SEE, IS HONG KONG LIKE THE SHIPPING YARD S IN THE LATE 1980S? I DON'T THINK THAT THERE'S A MECHANISM FOR ANY KIND OF A DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION IN CHINA, SO GIVEN THE MIGHT OF THE MILITARY AND THAT PRESIDENT XI IS PRESIDENT FOR LIFE IT IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION RIGHT NOW NEIL: WELL YOU KNOW THE NEXT STAGE I'M WAITING FOR, KAITLYN, IS WHEN THEY ORDER PEOPLE TO STOP ASSEMBLING IN HONG KONG AND THEY REFUSE TO DO SO THEN, ALL BETS ARE OFF BECAUSE WE KNOW FROM THE PAST THAT CHINA DOESN'T TAKE VERY KINDLY TO DISOBEDIENCE THEN WHAT WE'RE DISCUSSING, TRADE IS THE LEAST OF OUR WORRIES >> RIGHT I THINK THAT SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT, NEIL AND YOU KNOW THAT COULD BE A VERY STARK IMPACT, NOT ONLY IN OUR ECONOMY AND CHINA'S ECONOMY BUT THAT COULD REVERBERATE WORLDWIDE SO THERE WOULD BE SOME VERY INTERESTING CONSEQUENCES TO THAT NEIL: TO PUT IT MILDLY GUYS I WANT TO THANK YOU VERY MUCH

WE'RE STILL TRYING TO KEEP ON TOP OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS IN HONG KONG, PROTESTS OF WHICH WE'VE NOT SEEN FOR YEARS, REMEMBER HONG KONG ENJOYS THIS SEPARATE BUT EQUAL STATUS AND IT IS A THRIVING CAPITALIST MECCA, THAT ENJOYS EVEN MORE CAPITALIST RIGHTS AND INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS THAN AS CHINA REMEMBER WHEN THE BRITS HANDED THAT OVER TO THE CHINESE BACK IN 1997, WITH THE UNDERSTANDING OF THAT SEPARATE

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